Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Hull CityThe model favours Everton at 56%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.
Everton carry the heavier absence: 6.2% of their squad weight against Hull City's 4.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Everton 9th in the league, Hull City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and attacking threat (9th); weakest on creativity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (8th) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups