Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Hull CityThe model favours Everton at 63%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.8.
Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 47%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 3.8% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Hull City 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups