Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
Hull CityThe model favours Crystal Palace at 62%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.2 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 19th in the league, Hull City 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups