Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Hull CityThe model favours Bournemouth at 68%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (13%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.7.
Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 46%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Hull City's 4.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Bournemouth 8th in the league, Hull City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (8th) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups