Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Hull CityThe model favours Bournemouth at 65%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.8.
Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 48%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 5th in the league, Hull City 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups