Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
Hull CityThe model favours Ipswich Town at 63%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.2 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%.
Hull City carry the heavier absence: 3.8% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 19th in the league, Hull City 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups