Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Hull CityThe model favours Aston Villa at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Hull City's 11.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Aston Villa 16th in the league, Hull City 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups