Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Hull CityThe model favours Aston Villa at 43%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (15%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Aston Villa 7th in the league, Hull City 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups