Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
Hull CityThe model favours Spurs at 45%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (14%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 5.1% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 7th in the league, Hull City 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups