Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Hull CityThe model favours Sunderland at 70%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (14%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.7.
Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 43%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 3.8% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 4th in the league, Hull City 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups