Matchup Intelligence
Man Utd
Hull CityThe model favours Man Utd at 63%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.
Man Utd carry the heavier absence: 30.5% of their squad weight against Hull City's 11.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Man Utd 1st in the league, Hull City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Man Utd 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (1st) and ball recovery (3rd); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups