Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
Hull CityThe model favours Leeds at 69%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (13%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.8.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 47%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Leeds 3rd in the league, Hull City 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups