Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Hull CityThe model favours Fulham at 70%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.6 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 60%.
Hull City carry the heavier absence: 3.8% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Fulham 5th in the league, Hull City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups