Matchup Intelligence
Arsenal
Hull CityThe model favours Arsenal at 73%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (16%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.5.
Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 34%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 15.7% of their squad weight against Hull City's 11.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Arsenal 3rd in the league, Hull City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Arsenal 4-2-3-1, Hull City 5-4-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups