Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
BrentfordThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Brentford carry the heavier absence: 16.1% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Nott'm Forest 10th in the league, Brentford 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Brentford 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups