Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Aston VillaThe model favours Everton at 64%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Aston Villa 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups