Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
Aston VillaThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 43%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 35%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 12.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Crystal Palace 7th in the league, Aston Villa 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups