Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
Aston VillaThe model favours Crystal Palace at 63%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 10.5% and 9.9% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Crystal Palace 3rd in the league, Aston Villa 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups