Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
Aston VillaThe model favours Ipswich Town at 64%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Aston Villa 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups