Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Aston VillaThe model favours Sunderland at 71%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (13%), from expected goals of 2.2 to 0.7.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 46%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 4th in the league, Aston Villa 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups