Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Aston VillaThe model sees this close: Sunderland 45%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 21.1% and 21.1% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Sunderland 16th in the league, Aston Villa 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups