Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
Aston VillaThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 60%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (11%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Nott'm Forest 8th in the league, Aston Villa 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups