Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
Aston VillaThe model favours Newcastle at 49%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Aston Villa's 9.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Newcastle 14th in the league, Aston Villa 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups