Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
Aston VillaThe model favours Leeds at 53%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Leeds 2nd in the league, Aston Villa 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups