Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Aston VillaThe model favours Fulham at 56%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Fulham 3rd in the league, Aston Villa 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups