Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Aston VillaThe model favours Fulham at 71%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.7 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Fulham 6th in the league, Aston Villa 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Aston Villa 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups