Matchup Intelligence
Everton
SpursThe model favours Everton at 51%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 2nd in the league, Spurs 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups