Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
SpursThe model favours Chelsea at 78%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (9%), from expected goals of 3.0 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 58%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 5.1% of their squad weight against Chelsea's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Chelsea 18th in the league, Spurs 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups