Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
SpursThe model favours Bournemouth at 50%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 8.0% and 7.3% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 1st in the league, Spurs 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and defensive solidity (6th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups