Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
SpursThe model favours Bournemouth at 65%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Bournemouth 2nd in the league, Spurs 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups