Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
SpursThe model favours Ipswich Town at 63%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 5.1% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Spurs 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups