Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
SpursThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 42%, draw 28%, Spurs 30%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Aston Villa 20th in the league, Spurs 11th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups