Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
SpursThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 39%, draw 28%, Spurs 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Aston Villa's 21.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 19th in the league, Spurs 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups