Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
SpursThe model sees this close: Sunderland 41%, draw 24%, Spurs 35%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 21.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 15th in the league, Spurs 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups