Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
SpursThe model favours Newcastle at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Spurs 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups