Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
SpursThe model sees this close: Newcastle 36%, draw 27%, Spurs 37%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 9.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Spurs 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups