Matchup Intelligence
Arsenal
SpursThe model favours Arsenal at 88%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (21%), from expected goals of 2.5 to 0.2.
Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 15%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Arsenal 2nd in the league, Spurs 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Arsenal 4-2-3-1, Spurs 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups