Matchup Intelligence
Everton
SunderlandThe model favours Everton at 60%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups