Matchup Intelligence
Everton
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Everton 37%, draw 24%, Sunderland 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 1st in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups