Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 45%, draw 19%, Sunderland 36%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 80%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 12.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Crystal Palace 2nd in the league, Sunderland 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups