Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 33%, draw 21%, Sunderland 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Crystal Palace 3rd in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups