Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
SunderlandThe model favours Chelsea at 52%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Chelsea 14th in the league, Sunderland 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups