Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Bournemouth 39%, draw 24%, Sunderland 37%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Bournemouth 2nd in the league, Sunderland 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups