Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
SunderlandThe model favours Sunderland at 54%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (14%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 3.8% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Hull City 16th in the league, Sunderland 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups