Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 38%, draw 23%, Sunderland 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Aston Villa's 15.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Aston Villa 8th in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (8th) and creativity (16th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (16th); weakest on attacking threat, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups