Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
SunderlandThe model favours Spurs at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 21.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Spurs 5th in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups