Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
SunderlandThe model favours Sunderland at 54%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.0 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 5.1% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Spurs 13th in the league, Sunderland 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups