Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Newcastle 41%, draw 22%, Sunderland 37%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 9.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Newcastle 11th in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups