Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Leeds 44%, draw 24%, Sunderland 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Leeds 18th in the league, Sunderland 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups