Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
SunderlandThe model favours Leeds at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Leeds 4th in the league, Sunderland 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (4th) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (16th); weakest on attacking threat, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups