Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
SunderlandThe model sees this close: Fulham 41%, draw 21%, Sunderland 38%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Fulham 10th in the league, Sunderland 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups