Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
SunderlandThe model favours Fulham at 60%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.5 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Fulham 1st in the league, Sunderland 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Sunderland 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups