Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Everton 34%, draw 27%, Nott'm Forest 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.9% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Everton 8th in the league, Nott'm Forest 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups