Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Everton 37%, draw 25%, Nott'm Forest 38%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 10.3% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Nott'm Forest 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups