Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 31%, draw 23%, Nott'm Forest 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 19th in the league, Nott'm Forest 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups