Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Chelsea 35%, draw 24%, Nott'm Forest 40%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Chelsea 2nd in the league, Nott'm Forest 12th of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups