Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Chelsea at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.9% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Chelsea 6th in the league, Nott'm Forest 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups