Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Bournemouth 36%, draw 26%, Nott'm Forest 38%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Bournemouth 10th in the league, Nott'm Forest 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups