Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Bournemouth at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.7% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 2nd in the league, Nott'm Forest 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups